The most powerful investigation method, for deducing what happened at each stage of the accident flight, and thus to locate the primary wreckage, is simply this:
100% belief in the integrity and skills of the two pilots.
In other words, starting at the moment when an emergency happened over the South China Sea, the actions taken by the pilots, and the courses taken by the plane, can be deduced by simply at each stage asking this:
What would two highly skilled pilots of great integrity have done in this situation?"
But bizarrely the official investigations have discarded this powerful investigation method. So also have many amateur investigators, and the many of the press. Instead we see ever more lazy and incompetent theories claiming even 100% certainty that one or other of the pilots deliberately plotted to murder over 200 people by crashing the plane in remote and deep ocean.
Completely rejecting all such theories as absurd, I now return to the correct method, which is:
100% belief in the integrity and skills of the two pilots.
Here I skip forward to a stage well into the flight. The plane has already flown to the west side of the malaysian penisula, has considerable fuel remaining, and it is still dark. The pilots have tried and exhausted all available options of a runway landing, and have determined that the only remaining option is an ocean landing.
The investigation method is applied:
"What would two highly skilled pilots of great integrity have done in this situation?"
The resulting optimum strategy, which I believe the pilots selected, is to achieve all of the following:
(A) Wait until daylight. Obviously this is primarily so that the pilots can actually see the ocean they are landing on (there was no moonlight whatsoever).
(B) Minimise fuel load, to reduce the plane's landing weight. This was automatically achieved by waiting until daylight.
(C) Land on shallow ocean, and ideally in sheltered ocean. This is to make search and rescue easier.
(D) Land the plane reasonably close to shore, with good port facilities, not in remote ocean, This enables search and rescue to reach the ocean landing location quickly.
(E) Land in minimum wave height. The ability of the pilots to see the wave height is automatically improved by waiting until daylight. Also the choice of shallow sheltered ocean is in general likely to achieve lower wave height.
(F) Land in an ocean area where there are small fishing boats. This is to ensure that the ocean landing is witnessed, so that the location of ocean landing is known for search and rescue. Here it important to ask, what size of boats is optimum? A cargo ship or tanker may have only one pair of eyes watching the ocean. Whereas a small fishing boat may have 3 or 4 pairs of eyes watching the ocean. Therefore the optimum is to land in ocean where there are small fishing boats.
Let's look briefly at the official predicted location of ocean entry. It's in the remote deep southern Indian Ocean. It achieves requirements A and B only by accident, or by lazily resorting to absurd rogue pilot theories. And it fails abysmally (very literally) with respect to requirements C D E and F. This is a clear indication that the officially predicted location is drastically wrong.
Assuming that the plane had already flown to the west side of the malaysian peninsula when the decision to plan a landing in the ocean was made, the optimum ocean area which the pilots selected can be determined by the method described above. The answer is clearly in my opinion: certain parts of the Malacca Strait. This satisfies all the requirements A B C D E F.
(A) Easily reachable by dawn.
(B) By waiting until daylight, fuel load would be reduced.
(C) The ocean here is relatively shallow (less than 100 metres) and somewhat sheltered.
(D) There are multiple good port facilities nearby, in particular those associated with offshore petroleum industry activities based in the Peureulak area.
(E) Wave height in general is likely to be less here, as it is shallow and somewhat sheltered.
(F) In some areas here, for example near shoals, there are numerous small fishing boats, valuable witnesses to enable the landing location to be identified.
A landing in the Andaman Sea, or in the Indian Ocean, would fail to satisfy some of those requirements. A landing in certain parts of the Malacca Strait would satisfy them all.The decision to plan for a daylight ocean landing is likely to have been made some considerable time before dawn. Therefore the pilots would have made autopilot settings to proceed to the optimum ocean area, and to wait there. A way to achieve this is to program a sequence of 3 adjacent waypoints in the optimum area, followed by multiple repetitions of that same sequence.
Therefore it is most important to note that even if both pilots lost consciousness some considerable time before ocean entry, the point of ocean entry would still be in the optimum area selected earlier by the pilots while they were conscious.
Requirement F explicitly claims that the pilots would chose an ocean area where there are small fishing boats, hoping that a few of those crews would witness the ocean landing or entry. The pilots succeeded in this. But sadly the official investigations appear to have have ignored the witnesses. Recently one of the witnesses flew to Malaysia, gave a detailed description of the plane descending towards the ocean, and even gave GPS coordinates. The astounding interest shown in this important witness account, by all the people involved in the official investigations, appears to be this: absolutely zero.
The way to locate the primary wreckage of the plane, and to provide closure for the families and friends, is in my opinion to follow the investigation method detailed above. Fortunately there are a few other people like me, who strongly believe in the 100% integrity of both pilots, and if that describes you, please get in touch.
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